Giants release 3 starters

Lavar Arrington, Luke Petitgout and Carlos Emmons were all released today. I totally agree with the Emmons release, but why Arrington and Petitgout? Lavar was just starting to excel when he got injured, and it wasn't his normal knee problem, it was a torn Achilles tendon, basically a freak injury. And Petitgout was maybe the best offensive lineman the Giants had.

It will save some money under the salary cap, but it creates holes on the O-line and OLB. I suppose (and hope) and Giants think highly of Gerris Wilkinson, Reggie Torbor and Guy Whimper. Will David Diehl be moved permanently to LT, with Rich Seubert at LG?

This creates so many questions going into the off-season. Who will the Jints draft? OL, LB, CB? What about free agents? Clements, Samuel, Briggs, Thomas, June?

New GM Jerry Reese has certainly opened my eyes with his first big move. It'll be interesting to watch what else he does.

Yankee News - February 9 edition

Bernie rejects the Yanks offer.

Williams said he would not accept the team’s current offer to come to spring training as a long shot on a minor league contract and perhaps play himself onto the roster if another player got hurt.

Instead, Williams said, he would maintain a waiting game of sorts by staying home, staying in shape, spurning offers of guaranteed contracts from other teams and waiting for the Yankees to change their minds and offer him a guaranteed spot on the roster.

Please Bernie, it's not going to happen. You've been an awesome Yankee, but there's no room for you anymore. Just take the hint and retire with dignity, or just sign with another team. Don't try to force yourself onto the roster. It's not pretty for all involved.


Hughes continues to impress.

Hughes said last season gave him a low-pressure experience of what camp would be like. In one February workout, he buzzed a mid-90s heater past Alex Rodriguez, prompting the reigning AL MVP to ask a club executive, "Who the [heck] is that guy?"

"He's probably the best young pitcher we've had in this organization since I've been here, both in terms of stuff and in terms of performance," said [VP of baseball operations] Mark Newman, who joined the Yankees in 1989.

"[Hughes] had a month last year where he threw 80 percent fastball strikes. We've never had anybody do that. He went all year and didn't face a hitter with the bases loaded. All the performance indices we look at are off the charts."

Accordingly, the Yankees plan to increase Hughes' innings total this season to a ceiling of 180, no matter his level.

First off, I totally agree with the Yanks policy of limited innings. The very last thing we want is Hughes pulling a Liriano and missing 18 months. What I see (and hope) is that Hughes stays in AAA where his pitch counts can be easily monitored. He pitches lights out until August, going 5 innings a start, compiling about 80 ip (16 starts) of sub-3.00 ERA ball. Igawa and Pavano will still be the 4/5 starters, with mediocre ERAs (4.50 range), and the less effective of the two will be moved to the pen to make way for Hughes. He'll still have 100 innings to give, so assuming he has 8-10 major league starts in August and September, at 5-7 innings a start (40-70 ip), he'll still have 30-60 innings in the tank for the playoffs.

Of course, we may see Hughes much earlier if injuries or ineffectiveness strike the rotation. All the ML starters except Igawa have injury histories. But Hughes is not the first in line when Pavano (probably) goes on the DL in May. I expect this to be the order of pitching callups: Rasner, Karstens, White, Hughes, Sanchez, Ohlendorf, Clippard.

Best. Pitchers. Ever.

A good article.

Tabata vs. Martinez

The top hitting prospects for the Yanks and Mets, evaluated by John Sickels.

He has outstanding bat speed, and shows ability against both fastballs and breaking balls. His strike zone judgment is very good. All of his tools rate as average or better... He has the arm for right field, and with more experience his defense will play there without problem... His batting average and OBP could be more consistent than Martinez's, and Tabata should keep his running speed longer. He projects as an All-Star right fielder.

SB XLI, Hughes comps

- I was back in Boston this weekend for a Superbowl party. I didn't know about half the people, but it was still a good time. Most of the partygoers were pulling for Chicago because of Boston's hate for Peyton Manning. I also was pulling for Chicago, but because I have several relatives in the Chicago area. A very entertaining game, and it was funny to see all the corporate seats empty because of the rain. If those tickets go to real fans, no way are they empty. Anyway, congrats to Peyton and Dungy, and may Arod be next. But will it be with the Yanks?


- Hughes vs. Verlander
- Hughes vs. Prior & Beckett

But these articles don't tell the whole story.

Minors career stats:
(age 22) Verlander
1.29 era, 118.2 ip, 136 k, 26 bb (5.2 k/bb), .91 whip, .30 HR/9, 10.36 k/9

(ages 20-23) Beckett
1.75 era, 216.1 ip, 295 k, 51 bb (5.8 k/bb), .89 whip, .54 HR/9, 12.29 k/9

(ages 21-25 due to rehab stints, but primarily 21) Prior
2.96 era, 88.1 ip, 131 k, 24 bb (5.5 k/bb), 1.04 whip, .51 HR/9, 13.38 k/9

(ages 18-20) Hughes
2.13 era, 237.1 ip, 269 k, 54 bb (5.0 k/bb), .86 whip, .23 HR/9, 10.21 k/9

Ranking each of these categories:
Verlander: age - 4, era - 1, ip - 3, k/bb - 3, whip - 3, HR/9 - 2, k/9 - 3 = 19 (16)
Beckett: age - 3, era - 2, ip - 2, k/bb - 1, whip - 2, HR/9 - 4, k/9 - 2 = 16 (14)
Prior: age - 2, era - 4, ip - 4, k/bb - 2, whip - 4, HR/9 - 3, k/9 - 1 = 18 (14)
Hughes: age - 1, era - 3, ip - 1, k/bb - 4, whip - 1, HR/9 - 1, k/9 - 4 = 15 (14)

Wow. So adding up the rankings of age, innings pitched ('experience'), ERA, K/BB, WHIP, Homers per 9 ip and Ks per 9 ip, Hughes comes out on top (he's superior in WHIP, HR rate, innings pitched, and all while doing it at the youngest age). Even if you discount innings pitched, Hughes is still tied with Beckett and Prior. While Beckett and Prior are the pure power pitcher, strikeout/flyball guys, Hughes is more of a strikeout/groundball guy. ERA, K/9 and K/BB are the only stats where Hughes is below Beckett. But he excels in WHIP (he doesn't walk anyone), and HR rate (due to great groundball tendencies). Project Prospect only looked at BB/9 and K/9, but didn't mention how Beckett and Prior gave up over twice as many HRs per 9 than Hughes has. That's big. Hughes also has better BB/9 than Beckett or Prior, but slightly worse than Verlander. And Hughes already has more minor league innings than any of the others, a testament to his durability (knock on wood), experience, and adaptability.

- In other prospect news: TPA did a write up on Staten Island's Tim Norton -

A 7th Round pick of the New York Yankees in the 2006 Draft, pitching prospect Tim Norton got his career off to an impressive start and is another quality young arm to keep an eye on in the Pinstripers talented farm system. The 6'5" righthander was signed following his senior season at UCONN where he posted a 7-2 record with a 2.04 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 92.2 innings of work during his senior season. Norton continued his fine pitching as a pro going 3-3 with a 2.60 ERA and a New York-Penn League runner up 83 strikeouts in 72.2 innings at Staten Island. He held opposing hitters to a .222 batting average, allowed only one homerun on the year, and walked just 14 batters. Expect Norton, who turns 23 in May to begin 2007 at either Low-A Charleston or possibly even High-A Tampa due to his four years of collegiate experience.

And Pete Abraham reports -
Jorge Posada and Kei Igawa, as well as prospects Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Dellin Betances, Jose Tabata and Jesus Montero have already reported to the Yanks training facility in Tampa. Good to see that work ethic.

How important ARE sacks?

Since the football season is still another 2 or so days, I wanted to write this analysis before the Superbowl. We all know how glorified sacks are, but in the end, they're basically just negative running plays. But do they inflict some kind of psychological damage on the opponent?

I looked at the 2006 16 game schedules for 3 teams: the Gmen, Pats and Raiders. Examining every game's play-by-play (thanks NFL.com) for when sacks occurred, and what the outcome of each drive was, I compared the data to the average 2006 NFL drive.

- Sacks occurred in 18.7% of all drives (roughly 1 in 5).

- The most likely result of a drive after a sack occurred was a punt: 55.2% of the time. This is 16.1% higher than punting on an average drive: 39.1%. This is expected.

- Turnovers actually occurred less frequently after a sack: 20%. Compared to an average drive which produced a turnover 21.3%. The difference is slight, but I did not expect to find this. It must mean that offenses get conservative after a sack. Teams will take more chances on 3rd & 5 than on 3rd & 15.

- When a sack occurred, the offense failed (to score a TD or attempt a FG) 75.2% of the time. That's 14.8% higher than on an average drive.

- A TD or FG attempt occurred on an average drive 32.2% of the time. But when a sack occurred, it dropped to 13.8%. A big 18.4% difference.

- A TD was scored on an average drive 16.9% of the time. That dropped to just 2.9% on drives after a sack occurred. So basically, if a sack occurs, the offense can basically forget about scoring a TD. It happened just once out of every 34 drives with sacks!

Avg. drive
D holds (forces a punt or turnover) 60.4%
D fails (allows a TD or FG attempt) 32.2%

'Sack' drive
D holds 75.2%
D fails 13.8%

75.2-60.4=14.8
32.2-13.8=18.4
+
33.2

- So adding the percentages that the defense will get the ball back (either through a punt or a turnover), or minus the 'scoring chances' (TD or FG attempt), I'm left with: the D will hold (or the offense will fail) 33.2% more often after a sack than an average drive. In other terms, 2.2 times more often (61.4/28.2=2.2).

Do sacks equal wins?
The top 10 teams in sacks 2006 (with their overall D ranking):
SD, #10 overall defense
Baltimore, #1
Miami, #4
GB, #12
NE, #6
Seattle, #19
Car, #7
Buffalo, #18
Philly, #15
Chi, #5

Avg. ranking of #10. Only 4 of these teams missed the playoffs.

The bottom 10 teams:
Wash, #31 overall defense
TB, #17
Indy, #21
Tennessee, #32
Houston, #24
Cleveland, #27
Min, #8
Det, #28
KC, #16
NYG, #25

Avg. ranking of #23. Only 3 of these teams made the playoffs.

Obviously, sacks are a very large component to overall defense. Howevever, sacks are not the only determinant to defense, as Minnesota was among the last in sacks, yet ranked 8th in overall defense. Miami and Carolina had a lot of sacks and good defenses, but their offenses were not good enough to make the playoffs. The Colts, who were 2nd to last in sacks (and 21st in defense) are in the Super Bowl.

If you'd like the raw data, just let me know.

Colter Bean, Hughes

That Hughes guy.

Minor League pitcher Colter Bean is actually pretty good, at least according to a Baseball Analysts study. He has above average strikeout and groundball rates.