Random thought:
I respect the hell out of Baseball Prospectus, but some of their equations/statistics don't sit right with me. One stat for measuring pitchers is SNLVA - Support Neutral Lineup Value Added. It measures the pitcher's effectiveness in winning games versus an average pitcher. Johan Santana's 2006 score: 5. So what BP is telling us is that the best pitcher in the game is only worth 5 more wins than Javier Vazquez or Jon Lieber (4.84 era, 4.93 era respectively) who both have scores of 0 (meaning they were exactly average last year in terms of SNLVA)?
I understand about park and league adjustments, but still! - for comparison, Chien-Ming Wang had a score of 2.3. How can I possibly believe that Wang gave the Yanks basically just 2 more good chances to win over those average guys mentioned earlier?
And nevermind SNLVAR, which is the same except it compares each pitcher to a replacement pitcher (basically defined as a fringe ML pitcher). Santana's score: 8.4. Wang: 5.1. Not plausible.
No comments:
Post a Comment