Quick thoughts

1. If a real starting 1b can't be acquired, I'd like to see a platoon of Duncan and Betemit. Good patience, good power, lefty/righty combo, young and not too bad on defense.

2. I predict Joba won't make his first ML start until at least May. He'll spend March and April working on his curve and changeup while keeping his innings in check. His curve is already solid, but to be a longterm starter he needs a solid changeup and they'll keep him in AAA to work on it before subjecting him to ML hitters.

3. Re-signing Mo is a higher priority than Posada, Pettitte and even Arod. Without him, who's the closer in 08? Farnsworth? Get real.

4. The only fulltime hitters who (historically statistically speaking) should improve are Melky and Cano. Every other hitter will likely decline (since they're all over 30). How will that lost offense be made up? Aaron Rowand, Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter? Arod is a great cleanup hitter, but the Yanks really don't have another stud hitter (with the 2007 exception of Posada). Will Cano turn into that guy? It's possible. Can Tabata or AJax make an impact next year? Only if they tear up Trenton and Scranton first.

5. Good point by David Justice the other night. Arod most likely wont repeat this season's stats, and if he has an 0-10 slump with 8 Ks and 10 lob sometime next year, he'll probably get booed. He knows that and why would he want that? He might very well choose to opt-out for Anaheim, LA or Chicago. If so, what would the lineup look like:
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Cano 2b
4. Posada C
5. Abreu RF
6. Shelley 1b
7. Matsui/Giambi DH
8. Betemit 3b
9. Melky CF
Doesn't seem too bad, but it wouldn't be the best offfense in baseball anymore. Again, a lot depends on the improvements the young'ins make: Cano, Melky, Shelley, Betemit.

6. Sign Kerry Wood to short-term deal to be a reliever. I'd love to add an arm like his to replace some of what Joba did this year. Make it an incentive laden but lucrative contract. Ideally it would be one-year with an option, but there are other teams willing to do better, so more realistically it would be two-years with an option.

7. The longer the Torre situation continues, the higher the chances that he returns. You could do a lot worse than Joe, but at this point I feel the team needs something fresh, and Girardi and Mattingly are my top choices.

8. Speculation about a potential trade for 'the best pitcher in baseball,' Johan Santana. I've said before that I would not be willing to part with either Cano, Hughes or Joba to acquire him. That said, pretty much anyone else I'd make available. And I think it would take something like: Melky (grudgingly), Kennedy (again grudgingly) and Wang; OR, Melky, Kennedy, Horne and Tabata or AJax. But why trade prospects for the guy when if we the fans and Yankee management have enough patience to wait for him to hit free agency after 08? Why pay twice for the same guy?

9. For the next two weeks, Go Tribe!

That's why MLB needs

a first round 'best of seven' series. Cleveland was a little better during this four game stretch, but I still think the Yanks were the better overall team (best record in the second half anyone?).

The sad thing is that we would have given Boston much more of a run for their money. Cleveland is highly unlikely to continue their insane hitting with runners in scoring position while the Yanks would be unlikely to continue their woeful RISP hitting. After all, during the 162 game regular season the Yankees OPS with RISP was .829 compared to Cleveland's .743. Boston must be ecstatic to face the Tribe (5-2 in 2007) instead of us who went 10-8 against them.

I won't kill Torre for deciding to start Wang over Moose because I agreed with it for several reasons: 1) Wang pitches much better at home, 2) short rest can be a blessing for a sinkerballer who tries to keep the ball down, 3) he only threw 94 pitches in Game 1, 4) I just didn't trust Mussina. He sucked though and was one of the main culprits behind the series loss: 5.2 ip, 19.06 era. When your 'ace' gets shelled like that it'll be tough to win any series - throw in the poor hitting (Jeter hit .176, Posada .133, Matsui .182, Melky .188) and that's the series.

The bad news:
1. Obviously, the season's over and the guys deserved a better ending.
2. At least a month of speculation about Mo and Jorge... oh wait, and a guy named Alex.
3. Boston has a better chance to win the LCS.
4. If they do win the series, I'll have to listen to a lot of shit from my New England relatives at Thanksgiving.

The good news:
1. A far less stressful October from this point on.
2. Guys like Joba, Phil and Shelley got valuable postseason experience (and showed they could succeed) which should help them next year.
3. The possibility of bringing in a new manager. I like Joe but as some of the postgame guys said, the players have to raise their intensity level in the playoffs and it seemed like they were simply duplicating their regular season approach.
4. Their resiliency - this team seemed dead in late May (I was 80% sure they'd miss the playoffs) only for them to turn around the season and nearly clinch the best record in baseball.
4. Four months until pitchers and catchers report.
5. The Giants are 3-2 and could easily be 6-2 at the half.

That's why he's called Phil Franchise

Although I personally prefer Phil Phranchise. He saved the game and season tonight (for at least another 24 hours). Clemens failed to get through three (with a bad hammy) so on came Phil who shut down Cleveland's offense for 3.2 innings. How ironic that the guy that nicknamed 'Little Rocket' picked up the 'Big Rocket' in possibly his last game ever? He became the youngest pitcher to ever win a playoff game for the Yankees.

Arod had his first hit(s) of the postseason, as did Posada and Matsui, but the big blow came off the bat of Johnny Damon who delivered a 3-run HR that gave the Yanks a 5-3 lead. Later on Robbie Cano ripped a bases loaded single to right that Trot Nixon misplayed into a bases-clearing triple. That pretty much sealed the win.

I didn't get to see much of Friday night's bug fest (I was out of town) - but I know Melky was the entire Yankee offense and even threw out a runner at home; and as the Yanks were clinging to a 1-0 lead, bugs descended into Jacobs Field causing Joba to uncork two wild pitches that allowed Cleveland to tie the game. In the 11th, Vizcaino sucked and Hafner ripped a 2-out bases loaded single to win the game...

Anyway, now that this is a series (literally, every other LDS ended in a sweep), the Yanks get to face Paul Byrd tomorrow who was shelled in his last start against us.
Wang will start on three days of rest (good for a sinkerballer) at home with Mussina waiting in the wings, so this game looks to be in our favor. A win tomorrow means Pettitte in Game 5 in Cleveland...

Well, it sure looks like Torre was wrong

to start Wang in Game 1 and start Matsui over Duncan. Like I said, it should have been Pettitte in Game 1, Hughes in Game 2, Wang in Game 3. Someone on some website said that of all the Game 1 starters in the playoffs this year, the one most likely to get shelled was Wang - and he was right. He had two outs and none on in the 1st before allowing three runs! WTF? Then there was Posada k'ing with the bases full and none out. After the Yanks pulled to within one, and Wang walked the leadoff hitter, I knew Torre should have pulled him, but no, he stayed in to give up a two-run HR that felt like the death knell.

What else went wrong? Outside of Ohlendorf getting bombed, Melky has become an automatic out (0-4), Arod walked twice but also went 0-2 with two popups, Posada, Matsui and Jeter went 0-12 with five Ks (leaving 12 men on base).

The good news? Abreu and Cano looked good at the plate, Hughes looked good in his first postseason work (despite giving up an 0-2 HR - inexcusable Phil), this was a game the Yanks were expected/supposed to lose (they're only down 0-1), and finally, the last two years when the Yanks have won Game 1 they've gone on to lose the series, so maybe a first game loss will reverse that.


PS: Is that stadium some kind of launching pad or what? I didn't think at least two of those HRs had any shot of getting out.

Yanks at Cleveland, Game 1 preview

Sabathia vs. active Yankees

Last start against: Sept. 1, 2004 in the Bronx - 6 ip, 3 er, 5 h, 4 bb, 3 k
The righties killed him while the lefties couldn't touch him. Matsui didn't get one hit in 10 plate appearances - why the hell is he starting over Shelley Duncan who has killed southpaws this year (although he fared better against righties in Triple-A Scranton)? And it's not like Matsui hit some screamers for outs against CC - he had one lineout in those 10 pa, but in his defense he only struck out once too (his first pa).

My lineup would be:
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Arod 3b (you're best overall hitter should be third)
4. Posada C (three RHB in a row to make it tough for Sabathia)
5. Abreu RF
6. Duncan DH (has killed LHP this year, unlike Matsui)
7. Cano 2b
8. DMint 1b (because he's been hot and Wang is a put-the-ball-in-play pitcher)
9. Melky CF (despite being ice cold, is a switch-hitter, good bunter and great outfielder)

And my rotation would be:
Game 1, Pettitte -
the most tested playoff pitcher the Yanks have, who's done slightly better on the road and dominated Cleveland in one start on August 12.
Game 2, Hughes -
a much better road pitcher that shut down Cleveland on August 10: 6 ip, 1 er, 4 h, 1 bb, 6 k.
Game 3, Wang -
his big home/road split puts him here.
Game 4, Clemens -
again, considering big home/road splits (and his recent injury), this makes the most sense.


Wang vs. active Indians

Last start against: July 3, 2006 in Cleveland - 5.1 ip, 5 er, 11 h, 2 bb, 2 k
The good news: he's owned Hafner and Martinez, holding them both under a .612 OPS. In fact, he's held the Cleveland hitters to an abysmal line - .228/.323/.368.
The bad: Grady Sizemore has killed him to a .333/.333/.778 tune in nine pa. And Wang has struggled on the road throughout his career - 3.04 era at home vs. 4.62 on the road (and even more so this year - 2.75 home era vs. 4.91 road era).


Ironically, neither of the starting pitchers have faced their opponent this season. Going by these numbers the Yanks have the advantage, but the wildcard is how will the Yanks do against Sabathia after not seeing him in three years? He's gone from being a good but raw pitcher to the Cy Young favorite...

Yanks MVP

Yeah, I know, Arod's a slam dunk not just for Yankee MVP but for the whole AL. But let's look at the numbers anyway, and maybe determine who would be the second, third and fourth choices for Yankee MVP.

I prefer three SABR-type stats: WARP (wins above replacement player) because it's a stats heavy equation that attributes wins to a player's offense and defense; Win Shares (similar to WARP but weighted slightly differently - Win Shares are artificially multiplied by 3 to create a wider variance between players, so I will remove that); and WPA (win probability added) because it accounts for the importance and 'timeliness' of a player's production (e.g. a 3-run HR in a close game counts more than in garbage time - however, it does not account for defense or a player's position).

Arod
10.9 WARP - crazy. Arod won 11 more games by himself than a replacement level third-baseman.
13 (39/3) Win Shares - the most in baseball!
7.51 WPA - again, the best in baseball. He won seven and a half games by himself!
A total of 31.4

Posada would be my vote for MVP runner-up before looking at the stats. Here they are:
8.2 WARP - Posada gets a boost from being a catcher.
8.7 WS
2.69 WPA
19.6 Total

If not for Arod having a historic season, talk would focus on Posada as the possible MVP.

Jeter will look great on offense, but his defense is what kills him.
6.2 WARP
8 WS
2.58 WPA
16.8 Total - so far, this order looks correct.

Cano might surpass Jeter. Let's see:
9 WARP - higher than DJ or Posada mostly because of his spectacular defense.
7 WS
-.01 WPA - so he was basically an average clutch hitter. I actually thought it would be more in the negative.
16 Total

Jeter comes out just slightly ahead despite Cano's better production due to his greater 'clutchiness.'

Wang was most likely the top pitcher due to the lowest era and the most innings.
7.2 WARP
5.3 WS
2.3 WPA
14.8 Total

Pettitte's last outing hurt his value, which is unfortunate because that game meant nothing.
5.9 WARP
4.3 WS
.52 WPA
10.7 Total

Mo
5.4 WARP
3 WS
2.32 WPA
10.7

He had the highest pitcher WPA on the team despite several big blown saves and his highest era since his rookie year.


Best Defensive Players
Here I'll go with a combination of FRAA (fielding runs above average) and Fielding Win Shares. I'll convert FWS into total runs saved.

FRAA
Cano 23
Melky 13
Damon 5
Molina 5

Amazing that Molina racked up that many FRAA after playing just 29 games with the Yanks. Unless we can sign IRod or Zaun as the backup catcher, I'd like to see Cash Money re-sign Molina for another year (assuming he re-signs Posada).

FWS
Cano 23
Posada 22
Jeter 17
Melky 16

The thing that makes FRAA superior is that it's relative to the average player, whereas FWS does not. It makes far more sense that Damon was the team's 3rd best defender rather than DJ. And Posada is not a great catcher (he strikes me as about average), but he got a lot of playing time to accumulate all those FWS.

BPro also has defensive positions listed by average runs saved over a season (adjusted for all-time) - so in essence it's a descending list of defensive positions in order of importance:
1. catcher
2. shortstop
3. second base
4. centerfield
5. third base
6. corner outfield
7. first base

Just like the saying goes, 'defense up the middle wins games.' Fortunately, the Yanks have that - the total FRAA of Jeter (-6), Posada (-4) , Cano (+23) and Melky (+13) is 26 runs saved compared to the average up-the-middle defense. That's two and a half games won this season just by their D (going by the principle that 10 runs equals about one win).

Sources:
BP, THT, FanGraphs, BaseballGraphs

Down he goes

Timber!

56 points last week, 3 this week - go figure...