When Cameron was in Egypt's land...

Reportedly the Yanks are close to signing centerfielder Mike Cameron to a two-year deal. This comes on the heels of Brian Cashman saying on YES' Yankees Hot Stove program that (right now) they're going with the roster they've got (in regards to trading for Johan Santana). If that's the case, and Melky is staying with the team, why would Cameron be signed? He's a career 106 OPS+ hitter with above average defense and speed, but he just turned 35 and will miss the first 25 games of the year (serving a PED suspension). Really, what could he bring that Brett Gardner couldn't for significantly less money and considerably more flexibility?

If he is acquired, my guess is Cashman will make some kind of Melky for Damaso Marte move (which I actually would like).

Cash had a few other nuggets during the show.

- He gave the reasons for signing Hawkins: innings eater, great groundball rate with his new delivery (in Colorado no less), one year deal, and letting Viz leave guaranteed the 41st pick in the draft.

- Jason Lane has been signed as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training.

- He named Farnsworth the default 8th inning guy, but was quick to explain it's all 'fluid', and that Veras, Ohlendorf, Edwar, Britton, Albaladejo (who he called 'Jose'), Marquez, Horne and White would all be options too.

- Joba will enter ST as a starter and train that way. He knows they need to limit his innings this year, but the method has yet to be decided; he gave three options: 1) they skip him as needed throughout the year, 2) they use a modified six-man rotation (an idea I love), or 3) he begins the year in the bullpen and transitions to starter sometime during the year (an idea I dislike because it becomes too easy to fall in love with him as a reliever). Rest assured though, Cash said the team's longterm view of Joba is as a starter.


Pete Abe says Phil Hughes has already begun working out at the Yanks Tampa training facilities. Gotta love it!

More (or less) from Hank

A few interesting tidbits from Newsday:

- Hank said if the Yanks trade for Santana, they would not extend him more than five years. If that's the case, I don't see a trade happening - Santana wants at least six years. But you never know when Hank will go back on his word. I'm really hoping this shit drags out up to and past the July 31 trading deadline so that Santana reaches free agency. If he's smart, Santana knows he can make more on the open market than he can in a contract-extension window via a trade. And if he does reach free agency, I think Hank would be willing to go six years (because it's only money and no prospects).

- Hank also said they 'remain committed' to Joba the starter.

Both good news in my mind.

How great is it

that losing Luis Vizcaino to free agency nets the Yankees a higher pick than Boston gets for Eric Gagne? I remember Theo Epstein saying that the acqusition of Gagne would at least bring back two top draft picks - he never expected the kind of tailspin Gagne had that would net him only a 'B' rating.

Hey, it's the little things in life.

Quick hits

- Roger Clemens secretly taped a phone conversation with former trainer and accuser Brian McNamee two weeks ago. If anything, it seems to slightly favor the Clemens side of the story that he did not juice.

- Baseball America (the prospect bible) released it's online version of the Yanks Top 10 Prospects. Brett Gardner was awarded 'Best Strike-Zone Discipline' and 'Fastest Baserunner' - that's a deadly combination. Joba came out even better - he was awarded 'Best Fastball,' 'Best Slider' and 'Best Curveball' in the whole minor league organization!

Giants 24, Bucs 14

Dallas next week...

Quick and (very) dirty math re: Andrew Brackman

There I was, reading Lane Meyer's excellent analysis of Andrew Brackman, and one part stuck in my head - since AB is so tall (about 6'10"), he will be releasing the ball considerably closer to home plate compared to an average sized pitcher, hence making the ball appear faster. How much faster does that mean?

For the purpose of making the math easier, let's say a 5'10" pitcher throws a 100 mph fb (e.g. Billy Wagner, Tim Lincecum) and Brackman, a foot taller, also throws a 100 mph fb. And let's also assume both pitchers have the same delivery/mechanics.

5'10" is 70 inches - Brackman is 12 inches taller (82 in).

Brackman's arm - from shoulder to fingertips - should be about 40% of his height (33" in his case). Lincecum's arm should therefore be 28".

Their outstretched fingers (over their heads) should be their height multiplied by 1.27 (27% higher). That makes Lincecum's release 89 inches compared to Brackman at 104 inches. Not done yet.

The distance from the back toe on the pitching rubber (horizontally across) to where the fingers release the ball is 101% of the pitcher's height. For Lincecum, that would mean he releases the ball 70.7 inches from the rubber - for Brackman it means a release distance of 83.2 inches from the rubber. That's a difference of almost exactly a foot. Wow, that could've been done much faster if I had merely assumed their difference in height was their difference in release distance.

Still not done. A mile is 5280 feet - a 100 mph fastball travels about 147 ft per second. A ball traveling 100 mph goes 60.5 ft (60'6" or 726 inches) in approximately .412 seconds.

But in reality, release points are closer to home plate. Lincecum's is (70.7 inches closer) 655.3 inches (~54.61 ft) to hp. Hence, his 100 mph fb reaches hp in .3712 seconds (54.61/147).

Brackman's fb (at 642.8 in = ~53.57 ft to hp) reaches hp in .3644 seconds.

Therefore, Andrew Brackman's fastball reaches the hitter .0068 seconds earlier (because he releases the ball 12.5 inches closer to hp) than a pitcher a foot shorter. From my limited experience hitting baseballs and my extensive experience watching baseball, that's a negligible difference.

Further study reveals the difference to be far from negligible though.
Brackman's 100 mph fastball travels 166.03 ft/second = 112.95 mph equivalency (from true release point - 53'7" from hp).
Lincecum's 100 mph fastball travels 162.98 ft/sec = 110.9 mph equivalency (from TRP).

So, the equivalent difference in velocity is somewhat significant: to the batter, it means that the ball gets to him 36.6 inches (3.05 ft) earlier (or 2.05 mph faster (1.01849% faster)) than a 5'10" pitcher's 100-mph fb would (which is a lot more significant than what .0068 seconds would belie).

Hence, an Andrew Brackman 97-mph heater is the equivalent of a 5'10" pitcher throwing 98.8 mph (97 x 1.01849). Not quite as large a difference as the 3 mph Meyer predicts, but certainly nothing to scoff at either. (Again) however, perhaps Meyer accounted for air resistance - since a shorter distance throw (Brackman's fb) would pass through less air, there's less resistance, hence it would maintain its velocity better.

Conclusion
I expected the difference to be less than what I found. The fact that Brackman's fastball is faster/quicker than a shorter pitcher will only accentuate his velocity. Hitters will also have to deal with his fastball entering on an extreme downward plane along with the intimidation factor super tall pitchers often have.


PS: I hope all my math was accurate and that it made sense in context. :)

Two links

Is the next (and better) Daisuke headed to MLB? According to a report of a report of a report, it could happen after this season. Yu Darvish is just 21 and won the NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) Cy Young with a dominating season: 207.2 ip, 1.82 era, 210 k, 49 bb, 123 h, 0.83 whip.

The problem is that he doesn't become a free agent for another six years, he is the current face of NPB and has said he has no intention of playing in the U.S. However, his team (Nippon Ham Fighters) could be convinced to post him if they knew the posting fee would surpass $100 million, and Darvish might feel differently about MLB if he knew he could earn upwards of $15 million as opposed to $2 million in Japan.

Anyway, it doesn't make much sense to me when they can do exactly what Daisuke's old team did: hold on to him until he has one year left to free agency, then post him. They get five more years of his services and would still get a comparable posting fee as he would just be entering his prime. But, if he demands to be posted (to start making the big bucks) they would do it.

(h/t to MLBTradeRumors.)


- Great article on measuring intangibles.