Jan 3, 2007

Best Season for a Yankee Pitcher

With the (hopefully) Unit trade done, and 2 or 3 young pitchers coming back, the Post believes Cash Money may be stockpiling prospects in case Johan or Dontrelle becomes available.

Ok, All-time. If I did just since 1974, Ron Guidry's '78 season would easily win. It'll be more interesting and competitive to determine the best ever.

I still think Guidry's 1978 season is the frontrunner, but perhaps Jack Chesbro's 1904 season where he racked up 41 wins will edge Gator out. I'm not counting relievers, because as great as they sometimes are (Rivera, Gossage), they simply do not pitch enough innings (roughly 70-120 vs. 200+ for a starter) to gain more importance than a starter. Here we go.

Using Prospectus and Reference - PRAR (Pitching Runs Above Replacement [player]: how many runs did the pitcher prevent over a replacement pitcher that year) - DERA (Defensive Independent Earned Run Average: the pitcher's ERA if he were on an average defensive team) - STF (Stuff: 'A rough indicator of the pitcher's overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game.' 10 is average.) - ERA+ (Earned Run Average relative to the league average ERA and the pitcher's home ballpark).

1904 Jack Chesbro
ERA+ 148 , PRAR 119 , DERA 3.47 , STF 18

1910 Russ Ford
ERA+ 161 , PRAR 106 , DERA 2.77 , STF 27

1920 Bob Shawkey
ERA+ 156 , PRAR 95 , DERA 3.25 , STF 22

1924 Herb Pennock
ERA+ 146 , PRAR 104 , DERA 3.11 , STF 18

1937 Lefty Gomez
ERA+ 191 , PRAR 124 , DERA 2.83 , STF 41

1932 Red Ruffing
ERA+ 132 , PRAR 92 , DERA 3.37 , STF 35

1943 Spud Chandler
ERA+ 197 , PRAR 93 , DERA 3.10 , STF 27

1952 Allie Reynolds
ERA+ 160 , PRAR 96 , DERA 3.54 , STF 24

1964 Whitey Ford
ERA+ 170 , PRAR 87 , DERA 3.24 , STF 18

1968 Stan Bahnsen
ERA+ 141 , PRAR 94 , DERA 3.33 , STF 12

1975 Hunter
ERA+ 141 , PRAR 112 , DERA 3.49 , STF 14

1978 Guidry
ERA+ 208 , PRAR 121 , DERA 2.69 , STF 41

1980 Rudy May
ERA+ 159 , PRAR 72 , DERA 3.09 , STF 23

1993 Key
ERA+ 141 , PRAR 86 , DERA 3.38 , STF 24

1997 Pettitte
ERA+ 154 , PRAR 90 , DERA 3.19 , STF 20

1997 Cone
ERA+ 158 , PRAR 77 , DERA 3.07 , STF 37

2001 Mussina
ERA+ 142 , PRAR 102 , DERA 3.11 , STF 30

ERA+ ranking
Guidry 78
Shandler 43
Gomez 37
Whitey 64

PRAR ranking
Gomez 37
Guidry 78
Chesbro 04
Hunter 75

DERA
Guidry 78
Russ Ford 10
Gomez 37
Cone 97

STF
Guidry 78 - Gomez 37
Cone 97
Ruffing 32

So it comes as no surprise that Gator's 1978 is clearly the best ever pitched by a Yankee. Not too far behind however, is Lefty Gomez' 1937 season.

The following are their advanced stats for their career years. I'm also adding the best seasons of Roger Clemens, Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez for comparison.

1997 Clemens: 226 ERA+, 138 PRAR, 2.17 DERA, 45 STF
2000 Pedro: 285 ERA+, 130 PRAR, 1.74 DERA, 58 STF
2004 Santana: 182 ERA+, 118 PRAR, 2.53 DERA, 42 STF

1978 Guidry: 208 ERA+, 121 PRAR, 2.69 DERA, 41 STF
25-3, 273.2 ip, 248 k, 72 bb, 1.74 era, .946 whip

1937 Gomez: 191 ERA+, 124 PRAR, 2.83 DERA, 41 STF
21-11, 278.1 ip, 194 k, 93 bb, 2.33 era, 1.171 whip

What this leads me to say is that the Yankees have not had a truly dominant pitcher since Ron Guidry, and despite owning many of the best offensive seasons ever, have very few of the best pitched seasons ever. That could change in the next 5-10 years. With the potential additions of Phil Hughes, Humberto Sanchez, Ty Clippard, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Dellin Betances, and other prospects (and maybe Johan Santana and Carlos Zambrano), the Yanks have more pitching depth than they've had in a long, long time. Cash Money is learning how to build a long-term (and relatively cheap) title contender.

From the Daily News -

With Ohlendorf, Sanchez, top prospect Philip Hughes, No. 2 prospect Tyler Clippard and last year's highly regarded draftees Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Dellin Betances, the Yankee farm system is arguably the deepest in baseball in terms of quality arms - a dramatic two-year turnaround since Cashman was put in charge of the entire baseball operation, including the draft, which still has not produced a single starting pitcher of any consequence since Andy Pettitte was taken in the 22nd round in 1990. From 1991, when they took ill-fated Brien Taylor No. 1, to 2004 when they made Hughes their No. 1 pick, the Yankees drafted a total of 405 pitchers. Of the more than half they signed, other than '96 No. 1 Eric Milton, who was traded to the Twins for Chuck Knoblauch, not one had any impact on their staff. You can't even try to scout that badly.

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