Baseball's 'Clutch' Hitters

Not to pile on Arod, but I was looking around BR.com, and found more telling stats. Arod has been known as the guy who does most of his damage with the game already decided. That view held true last year, when he did his best hitting when the margin of the game was more than 4 runs: 1.048 OPS. All the other margins (4, 3, 2, 1 runs and ties), his OPS was below .900. And while his 7th and 8th inning OPS' were excellent, both over 1.000, his 9th inning OPS was a staggeringly low .66o.

That shouldn't be too surprising to anyone. But how did he fare in his MVP season of '05? Much better.

Comparing his 'margins' hitting, he did his best in ties games, an 1.154 OPS. All the other 'margins' had him about as good or better than his overall OPS.

He also hit very well in the 9th inning, an 1.143 OPS. And while his 8th inning OPS was below his overall OPS, it was still a solid 1.000. However, he didn't hit much in the 7th, a .775 OPS.

And for further comparison, Derek Jeter's 2005 & '06 seasons.
Last year, Jeter did his best hitting when the Yanks were ahead or behind by 1 run. His worst hitting came when the margin was more than 4 runs, essentially the opposite of Arod's season.

But surprisingly, Jeter hit poorly in the 9th inning, only a .528 OPS. His 8th inning OPS was a solid .917, but the 7th inning was low, at .844.

Seeing these stats, it would be unlikely if Arod's clutchiness doesn't bounce back somewhat this year. It was about as bad as it could get for him in 2006, so assuming a regression to the (or his) mean, he'll have an improved 2007.


Now, to examine the game's (active) clutch hitters, I've decided to use a process I came up with myself. I'll look at a player's career OPS, and if his 'Late and Close' OPS is 25 points higher, I'll call him clutch. Another criteria is that the player must have at least 300 'Late and Close' PA.

Very Clutch

H. Matsui
.857 OPS
1.018 (289 PA) Clutch OPS
(qualifies because even if he went 0 for his next 11 LC PAs, he would still qualify)

Ortiz
.924 OPS
1.005 Clutch

D. Lee
.863 OPS
.911 Clutch

osada
.847 OPS
.893 Clutch

Nomar
.907 OPS
.941 Clutch


Kinda Clutch

C. Utley
.871 OPS
.894 Clutch

R. Howard
1.023 OPS
1.087 (only 200 PA) Clutch

Rolen
.890 OPS
.909 Clutch

C. Lee
.835 OPS
.847 Clutch

Ichiro
.814 OPS
.825 Clutch

Andruw Jones
.850 OPS
.854 Clutch

Sheffield
.923 OPS
.925 Clutch

Melky
.739 OPS
.915 (86 PA) Clutch
Does Melky have the makings of a career clutch hitter? It looks that way so far.


Not Quite Clutch (Other notable players who missed the cut (most ML players are about 50 points lower in Clutch OPS))

Bernie
.858 OPS
.854 Clutch

Jeter
.851 OPS
.801 Clutch
Interesting.

Arod
.959 OPS
.897 Clutch

Manny
1.011 OPS
.913 Clutch
Manny borders on being un-clutch.

JD Drew
.905 OPS
.831 Clutch

Beltran
.847 OPS
.825 Clutch

Damon
.789 OPS
.762 Clutch

Delgado
.948 OPS
.897 Clutch

Wright
.902 OPS
.843 (259 PA) Clutch

J. Reyes
.748 OPS
.734 (283 PA) Clutch

Giambi
.954 OPS
.908 Clutch

Pujols
1.048 OPS
1.013 Clutch

Teixeira
.898 OPS
.842 Clutch

Blalock
.790 OPS
.773 Clutch

E. Chavez
.839 OPS
.790 Clutch

Baldelli
.780 OPS
.727 (252 PA) Clutch

Tejada
.822 OPS
.801 Clutch

Mora
.800 OPS
.725 Clutch

Soriano
.835 OPS
.758 Clutch

Sizemore
.858 OPS
.781 (239 PA) Clutch

Thome
.974 OPS
.911 Clutch

Konerko
.849 OPS
.773 Clutch

Mauer
.870 OPS
.794 (225 PA) Clutch

Pudge
.825 OPS
.803 Clutch

Ordonez
.875 OPS
.822 Clutch

Chipper
.944 OPS
.934 Clutch


Un-clutch (players with Clutch OPS 100 points lower than their overall OPS)

V. Wells
.828 OPS
.725 Clutch

Morneau
.839 OPS
.725 (280 PA) Clutch

J. Dye
.825 OPS
.622 Clutch

Hafner
.985 OPS
.868 Clutch

M. Young
.797 OPS
.664 Clutch

M. Cabrera
.919 OPS
.794 Clutch

Some great hitters are surprisingly un-clutch.