Trades on the horizon...

In a recent interview with Scout.com, Nardi Contreras, the Yanks Minor League Pitching Coordinator, cited in veiled terms several times that the system has too much pitching depth, preventing deserving pitchers from being promoted to higher leagues. Considering how influential Nardi is within the organization (he developed the 'Joba Rules'), and assuming the former (that he feels some pitchers are stagnating), it seems likely that B-Cash will make trades this off-season using the Yanks enormous pitching depth to acquire players of greater need. Who might that be? Well, it depends mostly on who (if any) of the big four re-sign(s): Pettitte, Mo, Posada and Arod. That encompasses four extremely important positions: a good starting pitcher who gave 200+ innings, a great closer, a great catcher and the best third-baseman (if not player) in the game.

If Arod leaves

What to do? With Scott Boras asking for an astronomical extension for Arod, perhaps he will opt-out to be a free agent. What will the Yanks do in that case? There are basically two options with a dream third option that's unlikely to ever happen.

1. sign Mike Lowell
He'll be a free agent this off-season, is coming off his best year yet and is a better defender than Arod. The caution flags arise when we realize that Lowell had his best year in his contract year (danger! danger!) and had huge home/road splits. His Fenway OPS was .226 higher than his road OPS. His career OPS at the Stadium is a sub-par .786 and he'll turn 34 next year. I say stay far away.

2. play Wilson Betemit everyday at 3b
A far more efficient use of resources, considering Betemit's salary isn't even $400 K and he's just 26 years old. His career OPS+ is just 98, but perhaps with regular playing time (something he's rarely received) he could post numbers that more accurately reflect his immense talent. I could potentially see .270/.350/.450. His defense is about average for a third-baseman but his arm rivals Cano's for the best in the infield.

3. trade for Miguel Cabrera
How much would it take to get the hefty 3b/OF slugging phenom from Florida? A lot. The 24 year old Cabrera (career 144 OPS+) would cost a lot of prospects, but Florida is open to the idea of dealing him, as they can probably only afford one of Dontrelle Willis and Cabrera. Apparently they want young, ML ready starting pitching, and since I'm totally unwilling to give up Hughes or Joba, what about Melky, Kennedy, Horne, Tabata/AJax and Betances for Miggy? It could turn out to be way too much or not nearly enough. A lot of it depends on Cabrera's ability to get and stay in shape and how close Betances comes to reaching his mammoth potential. And the nice part is that Cabrera is actually a versatile (though poor) defender - he could play a below average 3b and OF, or be taught to play 1b and probably be just fine.

4. just sign Arod
The easiest and most risk-free option. I believe Arod wants to stay a Yankee and the Yanks want him. If he bolts for the 4th team of his career, he'll always (if not already) be seen simply as a mercenary/gun-for-hire type with no sense of loyalty or tradition and will go into the Hall of Fame never having a 'true' team or fanbase.

Buck sucks

And I think the world is finally (slowly) realizing it.

Sometimes the best trades

are the ones you don't make. Give credit to Cash Money for not trading Melky or Ian Kennedy for (as Sawx fans affectionately call him) Eric Gag-me. The ALCS is tied at 1 apiece as Gagne took the loss in the 11th.

PS: Curt Schilling got a standing ovation for his remarkable performance: 4.2 ip, 5 er, 9 h, 0 bb, 3 k, 2 HR... On second thought, maybe those were Indian fans giving him the ovation. Must have been.

Joba will begin games, not finish them

He will enter spring training as a starter. Nice!

How much for Santana?

Since I'm not an ESPN Insider, here is the Peter Gammons article paraphrased by MLB Trade Rumors:

Peter Gammons reported back on Tuesday that the Yankees have already made a Johan Santana inquiry. The tidbit mentioned a cellphone conversation where apparently a Yankee exec asked who the team would need to part with aside from Chien-Ming Wang to acquire the Twins' ace.

Makes sense that the Yanks would place a call on this; Santana's the best pitcher in baseball and they're the Yankees. And the general vibe seems to be that the Twins are at least listening on Santana. Wang or Cano plus another premium prospect seems a reasonable bounty. The acquiring team may require a negotiating window. And technically, Santana could have the Yankees on his 12-team no trade list.

So the Yanks are willing to give up Wang as the centerpiece of a trade for twice Cy Young winner Johan Santana. Now, I'd be willing to do that but it mostly depends (for me, not necessarily the Yankees) on the players surrounding Wang (who wouldn't be a huge loss in my opinion). The following is the likely order of players that Minnesota would want included in a deal: Joba, Hughes, Cano, Melky, Kennedy, Tabata, AJax, Horne, Marquez, Betances, Montero, Abe Almonte, Heredia (followed in random order by Whelan, Gardner, Ohlendorf, AGon, McAllister, Kontos, Miranda, Norton). It's such a tough call but there's no way I'd trade Wang and Cano for Santana. Those guys are younger, cheaper and add more to a ballclub than Santana alone. Joba and Hughes have ace potential and again, are younger and cheaper than Santana (who will turn 29 in March). The rest of the guys I would strongly consider, but would be most willing to part with Alan Horne and Jeff Marquez.

Melky is just 23 and already one of the best centerfielders in the AL. He's also a switch-hitter with speed. His career line of .275/.340/.388 is far from stellar, but his D makes up for a lot of it: he had 4.6 wins above a replacement level CFer this year. I know his D will only improve so the question is how much (if at all) his offense will improve over the next few years. I think it will - .300/.350/.450 seems like a reasonable expectation. An .800 OPS from a great CFer is SO valuable that I'd be slightly against trading Wang and Melky for Johan (bear in mind that if the Yanks were granted a window to negotiate an extension with Santana then I might rethink some of these ideas).

Kennedy showed me a lot this year (even winning Minor League Pitcher of the Year!) - he didn't get a lot of time in the bigs (19 ip), but excelled, sporting a 1.89 era and 1.16 whip.

Betances, Montero, Almonte and Heredia are all under 20 with super potential. I wouldn't want to give any of them up (I love prospects) but to get Santana would relent.

All of this could be moot though if Minnesota gets off to a good start and considers themselves in the playoff race. With Francisco Liriano returning sometime in 2008, they could attempt a run at a title and maybe even re-sign Santana (they have a new stadium opening in 2010 so they'll have extra money and will want to fill seats).

Nailed it

Larry Dobrow knows what's what.