Dec 22, 2006

How accurate are the projections?

First off, Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!

I was going to look at this myself, but I was beaten to the punch. PECOTA is the best for hitters, and ZiPS is the best for pitchers (although none of the pitching projections are really that good). PECOTAs are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2007 book or on the BP website. Both cost money so I can't post them here. The 2007 ZiPS projections can be found here.

PECOTA .736 (or 73.6% accurate, for the 2006 projections)
Shandler .702
BIS/Bill James .685
ZiPS .684
Chone .677
Marcel .664

ZiPS .459
BIS/James .445
Marcel .432
Chone .424
Shandler .423
Prior YearFIP .370
Prior Year .290

Thanks to 'DSzymborski.'

1 comment:

marissa said...

happy hannukah to you!