Nov 1, 2007

Tex vs. Miggy

A quick analysis on two potential guys the Yanks could trade for. Since Miggy is getting fatter every year, and supposedly plays a horrible third-base (I really haven't seen enough of him to say either way), it makes sense to move him to first. Texeira is a natural first-baseman and switch-hitter.

To the comparison!

Cabrera, 24
Tex, 27

Best season by WARP
Cabrera, 2006 - 10.6
Tex, 2005 - 8.3

Best season by EQA
Cabrera, 2006 - .333
Tex, 2007 - .319

Years to Free Agency
Cabrera, 2
Tex, 1

Ok, it's obvious Cabrera is the more valuable player. He's just a better hitter - on top of that he's three years younger and farther from free agency. The problem, of course, is that trading for Cabrera would cost considerably more than for Tex (for exactly those reasons). Barring the worries about Cabrera getting fatter every year, how much more is he worth in terms of trades?

For Tex from Atlanta, I've heard that Atlanta wants a young outfielder. Would Melky, Kennedy and Horne be enough? I think so, but I personally wouldn't do that. Anything less might not land Tex.

Florida also supposedly wants a young outfielder and young pitching? How about Melky, Kennedy and Betances? Maybe, maybe not. Depends on how much Florida sees in Betances. We can kind of see Melky and Kennedy's ceilings (.310/.380/.450, GG defense, and 3.40, 180 Ks, 50 bb, respectively), but Betances' ceiling is higher than either - if the Marlins think he will reach it, they'd make the trade, and we'd have the best RHB in baseball under 27 (Pujols' age).

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