Dec 21, 2006

2007 Yankee Projections

by Zips

Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Bobby Abreu rf 33 .287 .414 .466 150 534 89 153 34 1 20 98 114 122 28 7
Jason Giambi dh 36 .241 .400 .490 125 394 70 95 17 0 27 97 91 97 1 0
Alex Rodriguez 3b 31 .287 .387 .497 156 589 108 169 26 1 32 126 88 138 16 3
Hideki Matsui lf 33 .293 .367 .474 133 498 85 146 31 1 19 100 58 77 1 1
Derek Jeter ss 33 .302 .378 .440 152 625 111 189 34 2 16 92 66 110 21 4
Robinson Cano 2b 24 .315 .343 .493 143 568 81 179 41 3 18 97 24 68 3 2
Jorge Posada c 35 .264 .368 .451 127 417 59 110 22 1 18 84 63 93 1 1
Josh Phelps 1b 29 .279 .338 .486 119 426 39 119 21 2 21 72 31 107 2 1
Craig Wilson rf 30 .255 .344 .478 114 368 59 94 18 2 20 61 32 124 1 1
Melky Cabrera lf 22 .295 .355 .445 157 584 93 172 28 3 18 92 55 67 12 5
Johnny Damon cf 33 .290 .353 .437 149 611 112 177 31 4 17 88 60 82 16 6
My thoughts.
Hitters
How is no one projected to slug over .500? That’s an impossibility with this lineup. 4 Yanks slugged over .500 this year.
Abreu - only a .287 batting average with 98 rbi? Those both sound a bit low to me.
Giambi - I know he’s a dead-pull hitter now with bad kness, but a .241 batting average? He should hit at least .250.
Arod, Matsui, Jeter and Cano seem about right.
Melky - I would love those numbers from him. Of course, they’re crediting him with 584 at-bats. That’s highly unklikely as the 4th outfielder. Of course, 2 outfielders went down last year, so you really never know.
Damon - Again, I would definitely take those. Especially the RBI.

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K
Mariano Rivera 37 2.01 8 1 68 0 76.0 61 17 3 15 66
Chris Britton 24 3.63 3 1 57 0 72.0 64 29 6 25 65
Randy Johnson 43 3.71 19 9 34 34 223.0 202 92 27 54 196
Mike Mussina 38 3.91 13 8 30 30 184.0 189 80 21 43 148
Philip Hughes 21 4.06 12 7 31 31 164.0 164 74 15 58 127
Andy Pettitte 35 4.10 15 9 32 31 193.0 204 88 24 50 140
Kyle Farnsworth 31 4.16 4 2 72 0 67.0 60 31 9 29 67
Mike Myers 38 4.25 2 2 67 0 36.0 36 17 4 15 23
Chien-Ming Wang 27 4.28 12 9 29 28 183.0 202 87 16 48 79
Colter Bean 30 4.45 6 5 55 3 83.0 78 41 8 46 74
Scott Proctor 30 4.60 5 4 73 1 90.0 90 46 13 33 76
Carl Pavano 31 4.64 8 7 20 20 128.0 150 66 16 30 66
J.B. Cox 23 4.71 4 3 37 0 65.0 70 34 6 26 34
Jose Veras 26 4.74 5 4 52 4 76.0 78 40 11 32 51
Humberto Sanchez 24 4.75 7 7 19 18 108.0 106 57 12 51 88
Brian Bruney 25 4.75 3 3 48 0 53.0 47 28 5 35 51
Kei Igawa 27 4.77 13 11 30 30 200.0 225 106 33 49 135
T.J. Beam 26 4.93 4 4 53 1 84.0 88 46 12 34 59

Pitchers
Randy - I’d be ecstatic with that year from him. In other words, it’s rather unrealistic.
Mussina, Wang - The ERA projections seem a bit high. I expect they’ll both have eras under 3.80.
Proctor - So Colter Bean is supposed to have a lower ERA than ‘Everyday’ Scotty? I don’t think so.
Pettitte, Hughes - Pretty accurate ERA projections in my book. But Hughes won’t get that many innings.
Igawa, Bruney - They should both have better years than this projection. Bruney was dominant this year (.87 ERA in 20.2 innings). It’s tough to say with Igawa, but I predict his ERA will be right around 4.00.


PS: I'll be examining the 2006 projections, and comparing them to the actual stats. Hopefully I can get it done before the new year.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Numbers dont add up..How can there be over 230 total Games started for pitchers? How are there 11 hitters with full-time at-bats?

Travis G. said...

This shouldn't be viewed for the overall picture, but rather for individuals. What i believe they do is assume everyone will be healthy, and what would they do IF they played a full season.

to find what Melky would do in 400 ab, one can just prorate it. the same for everyone else.