Nov 1, 2006

Matsuzaka Projections

Using Jim Albright's Japanese Pitcher Projection Method, here's what Matsuzaka's 2006 season would look like if he was in MLB.

186.1 ip
NPB hits 138 HR 13 bb 34 k 200 era 2.13
MLB hits 148 HR 16 bb 36 k 177 era 2.40

For era, I averaged the projections for hits, HR, and bb, and applied it to his NPB era. This would obviously be RIDICULOUS, so I doubt he'll post those stats (which would garner him the Cy Young easily). But the great thing is that adding a full run to his NPB era (3.13) makes him #2 in the AL, and #1 on the Yanks! Even adding 1.5 runs (3.63) makes him the Yanks second best starter (tied with Wang).

PS: I've been on a Matsuzaka frenzy lately. I guess it's because he could be posted today (but probably this weekend). Oh, and I've been watching more highlights of his on Check out this game. He hit 155 kph (96 mph!).

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